As you may remember, last week I was writing about bitcoin knocking at resistance doors. I must admit, I was dead wrong. Bitcoin didn’t bother knocking, it broke the doors down with a 1,000$ green battering ram. As soon as it broke above $4,200, the sky was clear. It swept through the expected resistance at $4,700 like a hot knife through butter. I figure this area should now serve as support once we fall into the retracement mode.
As things stand, the volume recorded on Coinmarketcap is 78 billion, out of which 20 billion can be attributed to bitcoin. Even if we take these numbers with a grain of salt (coinmarketcap is known to use hyper-inflated volume from many shady exchanges), this is impressive. When the current 3-day BTCUSD candle closes it may well be the biggest one since last summer.
The overall market cap gained 30 billion since the April 2nd breakout. All the big caps saw at least 15-30% gains across the board, with the price of Bitcoin Cash doubling. Most of the smaller alts are on the sidelines for now, with some bleeding heavily. However, this might be a good chance to enter into good projects, as alts will almost certainly soon start shining again.
All in all, it seems this 1,000 dollar move changed everything.
Altcoin market breakout
The highest daily volume of all time makes this a confirmed breakout
Yep, this 1,000 dollar move changed everything.
Bitcoin -weekly time frame
The price of bitcoin is currently around $5,000. Above lies what I perceive as the first important resistance, the 50 week MA. The next resistance is the 2018 support. Both of them will be hard to beat and will probably send bitcoin into some kind of a pullback. We can only speculate it’s either going to be a minor one, going into the upper $4,000s, or a proper 50% retrace, one that could bring the price back towards the breakout area, $4,200.
However, with volatility and market sentiment the way they are, proper assessments are hard to make. It’s best we hold on to our seats.
Comparison with the previous bear market
Here’s also a comparison between the last bull run (2016-2018) and the one that may be in the making as we speak. Several indicators are drawing the same patterns. After the breakout spike from the accumulation zone in 2015 the price retraced back near the bottom. However, a higher low confirmed it to be the bottom. After that, the real bull run started once the previous high has been taken out.
This is one of the possible scenarios how the whole thing will play out. Nothing is certain and we may well plunge into the accumulation abyss for a couple of months.
And yet, I’m feeling pretty good about this market. The 1,000 dollar move changed everything.